As I lay down my value bets for the 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, I can’t pretend to know exactly what’s on your mind.
But you might feel as though you missed out on a great opportunity to make serious money last weekend at Kentucky, right? But come on — did anyone really see Cole Custer winning that race? I didn’t. Neither did the oddsmakers at the top NASCAR betting sites.
Anyway, Custer will have a lot of attention from the gambling public this week, but as my beloved late grandmother once told me, lightning never strikes twice in the same place.
Unfortunately, she was hit by lightning not long after saying that and… yeah, I’ll stop right there. That was clearly a joke.
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Here are my pre-qualifying picks for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500: Driver 1: Kyle Busch $11,800. Driver 2: Jimmie Johnson $11,300. Driver 3: Brad Keselowski $10,700. Driver 4: Martin Truex Jr.
What isn’t a joke is Aric Almirola’s chances at the Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. He is one of my NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 value bets on merit, and I think he could do a decent job.
As for my four remaining sleepers? Well, read on, and all will be revealed.
Almirola might not have a race win to his name since Talladega in October 2018. But as of late, the Florida native has been in very impressive form. Odds of +2200 from Bovada are, therefore, worth a look.
Almirola has finished third in three of the last six races, as well as fifth in two others from that same six. An 8th-place finish at Kentucky last week wasn’t as impressive, but that was just a crazy event in general.
To the point, Almirola is one of my sleepers for the 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Why? Well, he has been up there with the best of them over the past six races and is well worth considering for a top-five finish, at least.
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While the Stewart-Haas man has failed to win in Texas in 18 starts, he finished 2nd behind Kevin Harvick at the 2019 AAA Texas 500 in November.
Worth a shot? I think so.
Jimmie Johnson +2200
Johnson has seven wins from 33 starts at the Texas Motor Speedway, making him the most successful active driver on this track.
The NASCAR Cup Series legend is set to retire at the end of the current campaign and is still chasing his first win of 2020. Johnson has featured on my list of value picks and sleepers a few times this season, but his third-place finish at Bristol has been his best result to date.
Can he get the win here? It’s unlikely, I’ll give you that. But with his track record here, anything can happen. His last win here came in 2017’s version of this race, and he also finished 5th in last year’s race.
Johnson is definitely being slept on. At odds of +2200, he could be someone to take a closer look at ahead of Sunday’s event.
With an average finish of 9.43 from seven starts at “The Great American Speedway,” Jones’ odds of +2700 look interesting.
From his last five races here, his worst finishing position was 10th. That was in the November race in 2019. Prior to that, Jones clocked in at 4th in three consecutive starts. That is a pretty impressive return, in anyone’s book.
Jones has been up and down this season — when he has been good, he has been very good; when he has been bad, he has been, well, underwhelming, to say the least.
The 24-year-old placed 5th at Talladega and 3rd at Pocono, but the three other races from his last five have been disappointing. Can he turn things around on Sunday? Sure. What’s more, he will be fired up, having watched rookie Cole Custer take the checkered flag at Kentucky last weekend.
William Byron +3500
Byron has four Cup Series starts at Texas, finishing 17th, 6th, 16th, and 10th, stretching back to his rookie season in 2018. An average finishing position of 12.25 might look impressive, but it’s not a lot to go by considering his relative inexperience here.
Still, this is a driver that has the capability to surprise on Sunday. On recent form, the 22-year-old is hardly the most impressive driver in the Cup Series. But he is young and developing and is well worth keeping an eye on.
I’m not confident in Byron’s chances of winning here. But what I will say is that he does offer value for a top-ten finish. I could be wrong — Byron might come out of the traps like a possessed greyhound, but I’ll be conservative here and pick him to finish anywhere between 6th and 12th.
You’ll be taking a punt on Byron, but his odds are worth pocket change.
Finally, we have Matt Kenseth. Here is a guy that should not be underestimated ahead of Sunday’s race.
Kenseth is great value to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 — he has two wins from 30 starts at Texas and a very impressive average finish of 9.47 in that timeframe. Can Kenseth win this race? Well, I think he has a great chance of putting in a strong performance.
A multiple-winner at Texas, Kenseth is still being slept on by many NASCAR bettors because of his age and recent form. Yes, he was drafted in to replace Kyle Larson following time away from the big time, but he has turned the clock back in recent weeks.
11th and 12th at the Pocono weekender were impressive, but 2nd at Indianapolis was a real indication that there is still talent there. I’d be surprised if he won this race, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him finish in the top three.
Wrap Up
Cole Custer’s remarkable win at Kentucky last week has led to plenty of NASCAR bettors trying their hands at backing the next big money winner.
And while I’m not exactly confident in saying that the winner of the 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 will come from one of the guys above, it could. What’s more, these five represent value in terms of the betting odds the bookies are handing out.
As usual, it’s your call. We’ll catch up ahead of next week’s race in Kansas and see what’s what, so make sure to bookmark our blog for more news, odds, bets, and picks ahead of the remaining Cup Series races.
May 17, 2020, Darlington, SC, USA; Kevin Harvick drives during the NASCAR Cup Series auto race. Mandatory Credit: Brynn Anderson/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Network
After finishing in the top five in his last five races, Kevin Harvick has seen his lead in the NASCAR standings grow to 88 points as Brad Keselowski (587) and Ryan Blaney (580) inch further back. Harvick will try to claim his fifth checkered flag of the season on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in the 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Harvick has had plenty of success at the track recently, finishing on top of the leaderboard in two of his last three NASCAR at Texas races.
William Hill lists Harvick at 11-4 in the latest 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 odds, while Denny Hamlin (6-1), Kyle Busch (13-2) and Ryan Blaney (15-2) are next in line, according to Vegas. There are a total of eight drivers fetching odds of 12-1 or better in the latest 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds. Before locking in any 2020 NASCAR at Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 picks and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and the Toyota 500 at Darlington.
Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and also identified four top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol. Anybody who has follow the model has seen some huge returns.
Now, the model simulated NASCAR at Texas 2020 on Sunday, July 19 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.
Top 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 predictions
For the 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, the model is high on Aric Almirola, even though he's an 18-1 long shot in the latest 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After a slow start to the season, Almirola has been a regular contender in recent weeks, finishing in the top 10 in seven of his last eight starts.
He's historically been very strong at Texas Motor Speedway as well. The 36-year-old has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at Texas, which includes a runner-up finish in his last appearance at this track. With 10 top-10 finishes this season, Almirola should be in the mix again on Sunday, making him a strong choice for your 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 bets.
And a massive shocker: Kyle Busch, one of the top Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts starting lineup. The younger Busch brother has two career wins at Texas, with the most recent coming in the spring race of 2018.
But he hasn't found his way into the winner's circle this year in the Cup Series. And while he had several close calls earlier in the season, he hasn't finished better than fifth in the last seven points events, a span that also includes three races where he's finished 20th or worse. With short odds and not much recent success, Kyle Busch is one of the 2020 NASCAR at Texas favorites to fade this week.
How to make 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 picks
O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds of 11-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who wins Sunday's 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Texas leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.